خانه علمی پژوهشی اقتصاد اقتصاد ایران ابعاد دخالت های غیر بودجه ای دولت در اقتصاد ایران

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ابعاد دخالت های غیر بودجه ای دولت در اقتصاد ایران مشاهده در قالب PDF چاپ فرستادن به ایمیل
پنجشنبه, 01 دی 1390 ساعت 08:36
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در نشست «رابطه دولت و رشد اقتصادی در ایران» اتاق بازرگانی تهران حسن درگاهی، استاد اقتصاد دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه شریف تحقیقات خود درباره ابعاد دخالت های غیر بودجه ای دولت در اقتصاد ایران را ارائه کرد.

او ابتدا به اهداف خود و همکارانش از تهیه این مدل اشاره کردهدف ما این است که ابعاد مختلف بودجه ای و غیر بودجه ای مداخلات دولت را درمدل رشد اقتصادی مورد بررسی قرار دهیم؛ به این نحو که دربخش مداخلات بودجه ای، میزان تصدی گری دولت و در بخش غیر بودجه ای نیز دخالت هایی که دولت ازکانال سیاست گذاری اعمال می کند را ارزیابی کنیم

دولت بدون دخالت وجود ندارد
او البته پیش از آنکه این متدولوژی را از طریق صفحه نمایش برای فعالان اقتصادی به تصویربکشد گفت:«هنگامی که به شاخص اختلال دولت اشاره می کنیم، به این معنا نیست که دولت به هیچ وجه نباید در اقتصاد دخالت کند اما مداخله دولت باید تسهیل کننده امور اقتصادی باشد

درگاهی تاکید کرد، آنچه که به عنوان اثر منفی مداخلات عنوان می شود، دخالت اختلال زای دولت است و البته دولت بدون دخالت وجود ندارد.

درگاهي توضيح داد كه شاخص اختلال سياستگذاري و تنظيمات دولت را چگونه طراحي كرده است.

او با بيان اينكه براي طبقه بندي دخالت هاي دولت در حوزه سياستگذاري و تنظميمات به اندازه گيري كمي اختلال حاصل از اين دخالت ها در طي سال هاي 1340 تا 1387 پرداخته است گفت:«اجزاي شاخص تركيبي اختلال دخالت هاي دولت در اين پژوهش از 7 اختلال با عناوين سياست مالي،سياست پولي،سياست نرخ ارز،سياست اعتباري، بازار كار سياست تجاري و قيمت گذاري تشكيل شده است

تخصیص سیاسی منابع
درگاهي در تشريح مكانيزم هاي اختلال سياست مالي به «تخصيص سياسي و نه اقتصادي منابع» و«بازتوزيع درآمد از طريق يارانه هاي ناكارا» به عنوان اصلي ترين مكانيزم هاي اختلال سياست مالي ياد كرد و «بهره وري متوسط سرمايه در بخش عمومي دولت» و انحراف بازده نهايي سرمايه از هزينه بكارگيري سرمايه» را نيز از نتايج عدم تخصيص اقتصادي منابع برشمرد.

او ادامه داد:«اختلال سياست پولي نيز زماني در رفتار دولت ها رخ نشان مي دهد كه اجراي اين نوع سياست ها با هدف ايجاد رشد و اشتغال بدون توجه به تورم صورت مي گيرد.» او البته «عدم استقلال بانك مركزي» و«ايجاد تورم و نا اطميناني در اقتصاد و غير قابل پيش بيني شدن اينده توسط عاملان اقتصادي» را نيز از ديگر مكانيزم هاي اختلال سياست پولي عنوان كرد.

درگاهي سپس به مهمترين مكانيزم هاي اختلال سياست اعتباري و بانكي، مانند دخالت در كاركرد تخصيصي بازار هاي مالي و دخالت در كاركردهاي حاكميتي بازارهاي مالي اشاره كرد و گفت نرخ «سود حقيقي موزون سپرده ها» و نسبت بدهي بانك ها به بانك مركزي به كل سپرده ها نيز بخشي از اجزاي اين شاخص است.

سیاست های تجاری اخلال گر
او سپس اعمال محدوديت هاي ناكارا و مستمر به صورت موانع تعرفه اي و غيرتعرفه اي بدون توجه به ارتقا رقابت پذيري را يكي ازمكانيزم هاي اختلال در سياست هاي تجاري برشمرد و «ايجاد ساختار تجارت خارجي با اعمال سياست درون نگر جايگزيني واردات» و«بي ثباتي و نوسان در سياست هاي تجاري» را نيز به سياست هاي تجاري اخلال گر افزود. اما آنچه را كه استاد اقتصاد كلان دانشگاه صنعتي شريف در حوزه سياست هاي ارزي مخل، مي پنداشت مربوط به مكانيزم هايي بود كه منجر به برقراري نظام ارزي مبتني برنرخ هاي ارز دوگانه وچند گانه و بالا بودن پرميوم نرخ ارز(انحراف نرخ ارزازاد از نرخ ارز رسمي ) مي شود.

کنترل نرخ ارز و کاهش رشد اقتصادی
او گفت، تعهدات قوي نسبت به هدف نرخ ارز و تثبيت آن به منزله كاهش رقابت پذيري در اقتصاد است. درگاهي ادامه داد:« سياست قيمت گذاري براي قيمت برخي از نهاده ها با هدف كاهندگي تورم داراي پشتوانه نظري و تجربي نيست. حال انكه شواهدي وجود دارد كه حتي كنترل ها مي تواند به جاي كاهش تورم منجر به تورم بيشتر شود؛ چرا كه كنترل ها با عث انحراف تلاش دولت از تمركز بر استفاده از سياست پولي براي مقابله با تورم مي شود.» به گفته او، كنترل قيمت ها و ايجاد محيط رانت باعث مي شود كه بنگاه ها فارغ از هرگونه دغدغه اعم از رقابت ، بهبود فضاي كسب و كار به توليد محصولات كم كيفيت و گران نسبت به توليدات خارجي بپردازند.

اين استاد دانشگاه افزود:«سياست كنترل قيمت به جهت تشكيل صف براي دريافت كالاي سهيمه بندي شده، به معناي تلاش براي طفره هاي قانوني و غير قانوني از كنترل ها باعث اتلاف، تخصيص ناكاراي منابع و كاهش توليد مي شود.» درگاهي شاخص اختلال سياست هاي بازار كار را به انعطاف ناپذيري در بازار نيروي كار گره زد كه به گفته او« نبود مكانيزم تخصيص مجدد نيروي كار» و«وجود نيروي كار بزرگ و سازمان يافته در صنايع مورد حمايت و در بخش عمومي»مهمترين نشانه هاي اين نوع اخلال است.

افت و خیز رشد اقتصادی در ایران
او در تحليل اختلالات دولت در دوره هاي زماني مختلف گفت:«اختلالات سياستگذاري و تنظيمات دولت در اقتصاد ايران از سال 1352 با افزايش درامدهاي ارزي نفت وتشديد وابستگي نفتي شروع و با وقوع جنگ تحميلي از يك سو و تغيير ساختار اقتصاد ملي به يك اقتصاد دولتي درفضاي اصل 44 قانون اساسي ازسوي ديگر تبديل شد كه اين روند تا سال 1367 به طور فزاينده اي ادامه داشته است.

درگاهي در ادامه اين تحليل افزود:« با توجه به اينكه در محاسبات، كمترين اختلال با عدد صفر و بيشترين اختلال با عدد10 نشان داده شده است، در سال هاي متناظر با برنامه دوم اما اجراي سياست هاي تثبيت در كاهش اختلال زايي دولت چندان سودي نداشت؛ چرا كه مقدار شاخص در سال هاي پاياني برنامه در سال هاي پاياني برنامه تنها به 8/6 كاهش مي يابد

او ادامه داد:« در سال هاي متناظر با برنامه سوم، اجراي سياست هاي اصلاح ساختار با هدف ارتقا رقابت و بازنگري نقش دولت وهمچنين ايجاد انضباط مالي، پولي وارزي، منجر به كاهش معنادار اختلال سياستگذاري مي شود ؛ به نحوي كه مقدار شاخص به حدود5/4 درصد مي رسد

اما تحليل كه درگاهي از ميزان مداخلات دولت ارائه داد اين بود كه« در دوره زماني 1384 تا 1387 كه سال هاي رونق نفتي وافزايش شديد درامد هاي ارزي است، همگام با سياست هاي انبساطي دولت نهم و فضاي نامناسب كسب و كار، اختلال زايي دولت در اقتصاد رو به تزايد گذاشت و مقدار شاخص در سال 1387 به 4/7 رسيد كه نشان دهنده سطح بالايي از اختلال دولت از طريق اعمال سياستگذاري است

اثر کاهنده درآمدهای نفتی بر نرخ رشد
درگاهي با اشاره به نتايج اين پژوهش گفت:«درآمدهاي نفتي بر رشد اقتصادي داراي رشد مثبت است. با اين حال بر اساس ادبيات رشد مبتني بر وفور منابع طبيعي، افزايش درآمدهاي حاصل از صادرات نفت در سال هاي رونق نفتي از كانال هاي مختلف اقتصادي، سياسي و اجتماعي مي تواند بر رشد اثر منفي داشته باشد. او افزود:«نتايج نشان مي دهد كه ضريب درآمدهاي نفتي اگرچه مثبت و معنادار است اما افزايش آن در سال هاي رونق نفتي بر رشد، اثر كاهنده دارد

اين استاد دانشگاه سپس به موضوع درآمدهاي مالياتي به عنوان يكي از منابع تامين مالي دولت اشاره كرد و گفت:«چنانچه براي بررسي اثر سياست هاي مالياتي دولت بر رشد اقتصادي در ايران ، يك فرم غير خطي از متغير نسبت ماليات مستقيم به توليد ناخالص داخلي در معادله رشد در نظر گرفته شود،نتايج نشان مي دهد كه اثر ماليات هاي مستقيم بر اقتصاد كشور تا سطح بهينه اي مثبت بوده است؛ اما با افزايش آن از سطح مذكور، رشد اقتصادي روندي منفي را طي مي كند.

افراط و تفریط نقش دولت
او اما به تشريح اثر هزينه هاي دولت بر رشد اقتصادي پرداخت و گفت:«با فرض ثابت نگاه داشتن ساير متغير ها، مقدار بهينه اندازه دولت در حوزه فعاليت هاي بودجه اي در اقتصاد ايران 5/33 درصد است. اگرچه اندازه دولت در حوزه فعاليت هاي بودجه اي كوچكتر از اندازه بهينه است اما مقدار شاخص اختلال دخالت هاي دولت در حوزه سياستگذاري، بيش از اندازه متوسط است.»اوافزود:«تحقيقات نشان مي دهد كه رابطه معناداري ميان هزينه هاي جاري دولت در امور سرمايه هاي انساني و رشد وجود دارد. در مقابل رابطه ميان هزينه هاي جاري دولت و ساير امور و رشد اقتصادي به شكل U برعكس است.»استاد اقتصاد کلان دانشگاه صنعتي شريف در ادامه « اثر» اختلال ناشي از مداخلات سياستگذاري دولت بر رشد اقتصادي درايران را «منفي» و «معنادار» دانست.

او اثر شاخص تصدي هاي دولت را بر رشد اقتصاد اين گونه توضيح داد:« تصدي هاي دولت در مراحل اوليه سبب بهبود كاركرد اقتصاد مي شود و پس از آن به دليل عدم كارايي بخش دولت رشد اقتصادي كاهش مي يابد.» او با تاكيد بر اينكه در سال هاي رونق نفتي ، روند شاخص تصدي هاي دولت فزاينده بوده است،گفت:«بر اساس نتايج به دست آمده،مقدار بهينه شاخص تصدي هاي دولت با حذف اثر رونق نفتي ، حدود 6/17 درصد محاسبه مي شود.

درگاهي درباره نتايج كلي به دست آمده از اين پ‍ژوهش گفت:«دولت در فعاليت هاي بودجه اي كمتر از مقدار بهينه و در فعاليت هاي تصدي گري ، بيشتر از حد بهينه عمل مي كند

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